The federal government is hurtling toward a shutdown, poised to disrupt numerous services, strain the workforce, and inject political turmoil as House Republicans, driven by staunch calls for significant budget cuts, insist on a face-off over federal expenditure.
Although certain government functions will remain unaffected – such as the issuance of Social Security checks – many other services will experience substantial constraints. Federal agencies will cease all non-essential operations, with millions of federal employees, including military personnel, going without their paychecks during the shutdown period.
Here's a breakdown of what to expect if the government undergoes a shutdown on October 1st.
What Constitutes a Government Shutdown?
A government shutdown occurs when Congress fails to pass legislation that funds government agencies and is signed into law by the president. Typically, lawmakers should pass 12 separate spending bills to finance government agencies, but this process is often time-consuming. Consequently, they resort to passing temporary extensions, known as continuing resolutions (CR), to keep the government operational.
In the absence of funding legislation, federal agencies must halt all non-essential work and suspend salary payments for the duration of the shutdown. Essential personnel, such as air traffic controllers and law enforcement officers, are still required to report for duty. Under a 2019 law, these essential workers are entitled to receive backpay once the funding deadlock is resolved.
When Does a Shutdown Commence, and How Long Could It Last?
Government funding expires on October 1st, marking the beginning of the federal fiscal year. If Congress fails to pass a funding plan that the president approves, the shutdown officially begins at 12:01 a.m.
The duration of a shutdown is unpredictable. With a divided Congress – a Democratic-controlled Senate and a Republican-led House – and Speaker Kevin McCarthy's conservative faction leveraging the shutdown for budget cuts, many anticipate a protracted disruption that could stretch for weeks.
Who Bears the Impact of a Shutdown?
Millions of federal workers, including approximately 2 million military personnel and over 2 million civilian employees nationwide, face delayed paychecks during a government shutdown.
Nearly 60% of federal workers are employed in the Defense, Veterans Affairs, and Homeland Security departments. These workers engage directly with taxpayers, ranging from Transportation Security Administration agents providing airport security to Postal Service employees delivering mail.
Some federal offices may also be forced to close or reduce their hours during a shutdown.
Beyond the federal workforce, a shutdown could have widespread implications for government services. Individuals seeking government services, such as clinical trials, firearm permits, and passports, may encounter delays.
Businesses closely tied to the federal government, such as federal contractors and tourist services near national parks, might experience disruptions and economic downturns. The travel sector, for instance, could lose $140 million daily during a shutdown, according to the U.S. Travel Industry Association.
Lawmakers also caution that a shutdown could unsettle financial markets. Goldman Sachs has estimated that a shutdown would reduce economic growth by 0.2% per week but would rebound once the government reopens.
Furthermore, disruptions in government services could erode confidence in the government's ability to fulfill its fundamental responsibilities, as emphasized by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which warned, "A well-functioning economy requires a functioning government."
What Happens to Court Cases, Congressional Work, and Presidential Pay?
The President and members of Congress will continue their duties and receive their salaries. However, non-essential staff members will face furloughs.
The judiciary will maintain operations for a limited duration using funds derived from court filings, fees, and other approved sources of funding.
Notably, funding for the three special counsels appointed by Attorney General Merrick Garland would remain unaffected by a government shutdown, as they are financed through a permanent, indefinite appropriation – a category exempted from past shutdowns.
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